As winter approaches, some airlines may adjust flight schedules and capacity allocation based on seasonal demand changes. Winter is usually the off-season for air transport, and the demand for transatlantic passenger routes may decrease. In order to reduce costs and optimize resource allocation, airlines will reduce the investment in capacity for this route.
According to reports, the transatlantic air cargo route is expected to significantly reduce capacity from September, mainly due to winter operation adjustments and the transfer of capacity to the Asia-Europe route. Flexport pointed out that although the demand for transatlantic routes remains stable, the reduction of capacity will push up freight rates.
At the same time, the Asia-Europe trade route may exhibit stronger transportation demand and profit potential during specific periods due to market demand and trade activities. Companies such as Qatar Airways and Air France-KLM have redirected their freight flights from Latin America to Asia-Pacific to meet the growing demand in that region. The market may therefore be more sensitive and susceptible to interference, which further leads to a reduction in transatlantic capacity.
When transportation capacity is reduced, the number of available airline seats or cabins for transporting goods and passengers decreases in the market. However, trade and business travel across the Atlantic region continue to persist, creating relatively stable demand for air transportation. In this situation, with the reduction of transportation capacity but stable demand, according to the basic principles of supply and demand in economics, the scarcity of transportation services increases, which will drive up transportation prices.
In addition, some external factors such as fluctuations in fuel prices and changes in airline operating costs may also affect transportation prices in conjunction with reduced transportation capacity. If fuel prices rise, airline operating costs increase, and in order to maintain profitability, they are more likely to increase transportation prices, while reduced transportation capacity can provide certain market environmental support for price increases.
In terms of prices, transatlantic route prices follow seasonal trends, while Asia-Europe route prices remain high due to the promotion of e-commerce. Global air freight capacity growth is slow, and delays in the aircraft supply chain are one of the main reasons. It is expected that demand for freight in the fourth quarter will be strong, and the spot market will remain high.
